Will the retiring workforce retire?
by Patti Anklam
I was on an information exchange teleconference last Friday with engineers from one of my clients and engineers from one of their partners. The topic was the generational shift in the workforce and a general knowledge sharing about techniques each is using to support both the newer and the older generations in the shift.
I was struck by a comment made on the call that the anticipated “brain drain” from the retirement of baby boomers (a much discussed topic several years ago) was not as imminent as previously thought. Why? “It’s the economy, stupid.” Having seen their 401Ks cut in half by the recent economic crisis, many workers are opting to stay longer in the workforce.
Curious, I checked in with my friend Dave DeLong, whose seminal 2004 work on the topic, Lost Knowledge, put all the pieces together along with recommendations for companies to prepare themselves for the (at that time thought to be) inevitable exodus. Dave, of course, has been thinking of this himself and describes the phenomenon as “all these retirement-eligible engineers piling up at the door” (nice image). He also offered the following food for thought:
- If those engineers (or other types of experts) are not retiring, they probably recognize that their knowledge is their meal ticket, so why should they be sharing it? I would be on the watch out, then, for more knowledge hoarding, which can be done is a variety of discrete ways.
- If all these engineers have decided to stick around because the economy is poor, what is to prevent them for all leaving at once, when things do turn around. My argument is the problems we had before this recession are going to come back to hurt us with a vengeance when business becomes strong again and people start feeling they have other options.
- I have heard a consistent story of many organizations currently experiencing older workers delaying retirement. But I have also heard growing concerns about this mass exodus when things turn around. If managers have been lulled into a false sense of security by the current delayed retirements, organizations may be hurt even more in the long term.
- Equally problematic is in most organizations resources have been cut for knowledge sharing/transfer activities because of the downturn, which makes implementing solutions even more challenging. I argue for the need to balance the short term “snake pit” of budget cuts and layoffs against the longer terms needs to sustain strategic capabilities.
Dave and I would both be interested in hearing more about what is happening on the ground with companies that were planning to lose workers — what has the impact been?
