Infoworld’s 10 Future Shocks for the Next 10 Years: The Superstruct Game

by Jenny Ambrozek

September 30, 2008 at 2:33 pm · Filed under Collaboration, Collective intelligence, Management, Talent Management

Marking Infoworld’s 30th birthday 9/23/08 their staff and IDG review the series of past future shocks “from the ascent of the personal computer to horrifying strains of malware to the sizzling sex appeal of the iPhone.” to look ahead to the potential future shocks in the next 10 years.  The list makes an intriguing read:

1. Triumph of the cloud

2. Cyborg chic

3. Everything works

4. Nothing escapes you

5. Smartphones take center stage

6. Human-free manufacturing

7. Perfect image recognition

8. Big Brother never sleeps

9. Unbroken connectivity

10. Relationship enhancement

Infoworld has summoned a thoughtprovoking list, but I wonder from your perspective, how many of these future shocks are already arrived?  Contributor Bob Lewis’s observations about the potential of human-free manufacturing to impact job loss and wage decline particularly caught my attention:

 “Right now, manufacturing in the U.S. is up, while manufacturing employment is down. By 2018, automation will have hit enough labor sectors that while the GDP will continue to grow, fewer and fewer people will receive that growth in the form of wages. This will drive either social collapse or the establishment of a no-apologies welfare state.”

Infoworld’s list makes me think about the individual and organizational challenges the next 10 years of technology innovation will bring.  How will people and enterprizes adapt to put these new tools to work positively?

Stories and analyses emerging from the financial industry failures witnessed in recent weeks and months remind us of the crtical human factor in successful technology adoption.  False human judgements about risk levels built into trading algorithms and platforms failed to highlight the serious and contagious financial losses accumulating in global organizations. Further, as my colleague Victoria Axelrod eloquently articulates (most recently during our KMWorld Open Networks for Co-Generating Knowledge workshop), how rapidly will organizations move to adapt compensation programs to reward more effective ways of working emerging technology enables?

Thoughts anyone?  Meantime if you would like to participate in a collective intelligence project to project the future in 2019, the Institute for the Futures’s SuperStruct Game begins October 6, 2008 here:  http://superstructgame.org/ 

~ Jenny Ambrozek

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2 Comments »

Fascinating, thanks for the reference. The question will be what happens to those who choose to live “off the grid” in the same sense as today someone choosing not to have a television, phone, etc., and more importantly if, “for security reasons,” a person will be allowed to live without “big brothers” recognition. Spooky.

Francis, your questions are all thoughtprovoking and thanks for informing the discussion,

Your first point reminded me of hearing David Weinberger speak at a Berkman Center event some years ago. It was after Chris Anderson’s “Long Tail” book arrived. Weinberger expressed his concerns about, in a granular media world, the potential for people speaking into narrow echo chambers. He asked the question: What’s the future for broad discourse on issues of critical public concern?

I’ve also heard Andrew McAfee make the case for haves and have nots in terms of those enterprizes that adopt the technologies he defines as Enterprise 2.0 vs those that don’t. If I translate McAfee’s research and writing correctly I believe he argues that because technology is so embedded in business peformance these days, not adopting translates to competitive disadvantage.

I’d like to better understand your 3rd point that is certainly attention getting. Are you suggesting that not participating and having profiles that define our identities in public online spaces (like Facebook, LinkedIn and Twitter) can potentially be a negative for your reputation and “security reasons’?

Much to consider in your comment indeed.

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